RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the Issuer/Sovereign Credit ratings of CariBBB- (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale assigned to the The Government of Saint Lucia (GOSL). A stable outlook was maintained.

 RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS

 Factors that could lead to an improvement in the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Substantial changes in the debt levels leading to a debt to GDP ratio below 65%
• Achievement of a balanced budget over the medium term
• Sustained GDP growth of the order of 3% per annum or more (above pre-COVID-19 level)

Factors that could lead to a lowering of the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Significant changes in the fiscal position leading to a fiscal deficit larger than 15% of GDP
• Substantial changes in the debt levels leading to sustained debt to GDP in excess of 90% alongside a decline in debt servicing to below 2 times

RATING RATIONALE

Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the ratings of CariBBB- (Foreign Currency and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale for the several rated debt issues of the Government of Saint Lucia (GOSL). These ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of these debt obligations, adjudged in relation to other debt obligations in the Caribbean, is adequate.

CariCRIS has also maintained a stable outlook. The stable outlook is based on the stabilization in fiscal performance and in debt to GDP following the initial COVID-19 shock in 2020. Supporting the debt to GDP containment within the current rating category’s limits is the expected GDP growth of around 12% in 2022, a continued inflexion away from 2019’s and 2020’s contractions. Returning tourism activities are expected to support balance of payments health. However, downside risks to the outlook are significant and include inflation and economic slowdown in source markets, slowing the path to full recovery. Further virus impacts and potential hurricane strikes remain key risks as well.

Analyst’s Contact Info:

Stefan Fortuné

Phone: 1-868-799-6751 (m)

sfortune@caricris.com    

www.caricris.com   

info@caricris.com

Disclaimer: CariCRIS has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for this product. Information has been obtained by CariCRIS from sources which it considers reliable.  However, CariCRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.  No part of this report may be published / reproduced in any form without CariCRIS’ prior written approval.  CariCRIS is also not responsible for any errors in transmission and especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this product.

RATING ACTION:

On August 29, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned Issuer/ Corporate Ratings of CariBBB- (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale and jmBBB+ (Local Currency Rating) and jmBBB (Foreign Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale to Victoria Mutual Investments Limited (VMIL or the Company). A stable outlook was maintained.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement of the ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Expansion of the Group’s product and service offerings and/or improvements in net interest spreads leading to a sustained increase in PAT of 10% or more for 1 year
• An improvement in the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica
• Less than 25% of VMIL’s (the Company) revenue is derived from dividend income as overall revenue from investments and loans increases sustained for 2 financial periods

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Deterioration in VMWM’s total capital to total assets ratio to 7.5% or lower
• A deterioration of VMWM’s capital base to risk-weighted assets ratio to 12.5% or lower
• A lowering of the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-8356

khamelt@caricris.com

Maxwell Gooding

mgooding@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com

RATING ACTION:

On August 30, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned Issuer/Corporate Credit ratings at CariBBB+ (Foreign Currency Rating) and CariA- (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale and jmAA (Local Currency Rating) and jmAA- (Foreign Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale to the US $5 million debt issue of Development Bank of Jamaica Limited (DBJ or the bank). A stable outlook was maintained.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

• An uplift in the creditworthiness of Jamaica, where DBJ derives 100% of its revenue, with an attendant improvement in business prospects for DBJ as well as improved profitability and loan portfolio quality
• Improving business conditions over the next 12-15 months, thereby leading to growth in client base and sustained earnings growth

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

• A reduction in funding by more than 25%
• Interest rate spread falls by more than 150 bps
• A lowering of the creditworthiness of Jamaica

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Anelia Oudit

Mobile : 1-868-487-8364

aoudit@caricris.com

Kyla Balwant

kbalwant@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com

Caribbean Information & Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS), the region’s credit rating agency, wishes to inform the public of the withdrawal of the credit rating and outlook assigned to The Jamaica National Group Limited’s (JN Group) J $4.6 billion, 7.25% Fixed Rate Secured Bond maturing December 2028. This rating was last reported on by CariCRIS in December 2021.

The rating is withdrawn following CariCRIS’ receipt of notice in July 2022, indicating full repayment of the instrument. As a result, the rating will no longer be kept under annual surveillance and as such there will be no further updates on this bond issue rating.

September 1, 2022

RATING ACTION:

On August 29, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned ratings of CariA- (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale for Eastern Caribbean Home Mortgage Bank. A stable outlook was assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

• Rising profit margins and sustained earnings growth for ECHMB over the next Three (3) years.
• Further diversity in income streams through the successful launch of new products, investments, and services.
• Further diversity in funding to include sources from outside the OECS region.
• Strengthening of its capitalization level to above 20%.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

• A significant tightening of the net interest spread below 1% earned on investments and a material decline in profitability of 10% sustained for Two (2) financial periods.
• The Company’s Tangible Net Worth to Total Assets remaining below 12% for the next financial year.

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-4356

khamlet@caricris.com

Sultan Mohammed

Mobile : 1-1868-362-7304

smohammed@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com

The Jamaica National Group Limited – Withdrawal of Issue Credit Ratings

Caribbean Information & Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS), the region’s credit rating agency, wishes to inform the public of the withdrawal of the credit rating and outlook assigned to The Jamaica National Group Limited’s (JN Group) J $4.6 billion, 7.75% Fixed Rate Secured Bond maturing June 2029. This rating was last reported on by CariCRIS in December 2021.

The rating is withdrawn following CariCRIS’ receipt of notice in July 2022, indicating full repayment of the instrument. As a result, the rating will no longer be kept under annual surveillance and as such there will be no further updates on this bond issue rating.

September 1, 2022

RATING ACTION:

On June 15, 2022, CariCRIS has reaffirmed the ratings currently assigned to the US $10 Million debt issue (notional) of Dominica Agricultural, Industrial and Development Bank (DAID or the Bank) at CariB (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale. A stable outlook was assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

• An upgrade to the sovereign credit rating of the GOCD
• Improvement in the NPL ratio to less than 16%
• Adherence to the EIB’s revised financial covenants
• Sustained profitable operations for more than 2 financial periods

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

• A change in the sovereign credit rating of the GOCD
• Sustained NPL ratio of 45% or more over for the next 12 – 15 months
• Further delay in the full implementation of the Bank’s Enterprise Risk Management Framework
• Any loss of major funding lines without identification of a suitable alternative
• A decline in TNW coverage of net NPLs to less than 1 time over the next 12 – 15 months
• A fall in the Bank’s capital adequacy ratio to less than 25% over the next 12 – 15 months

RATING RATIONALE

Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the assigned ratings to the US $10 million debt issue (notional) of the Dominica Agricultural, Industrial and Development Bank (DAID or the Bank) to CariB (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale. These ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of this notional debt obligation, adjudged in relation to other debt obligations in the Caribbean is weak.

CariCRIS has maintained a stable outlook on the ratings. The stable outlook is based on our expectation that there will be continued improvements in the Bank’s asset quality. The improvement is underpinned by the gradual easing of COVID-19 related movement restrictions in the Commonwealth of Dominica and an associated improvement in economic activity. This is expected to result in the Bank’s improved financial performance and improved asset quality. Additionally, the level of support that is being provided to the Bank through its Government shareholding and supportive lenders also supports the outlook.

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile: 1-868-487-8356

khamlet@caricris.com    

Khadine Tavares

ktavares@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com

Disclaimer: CariCRIS has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for this product. Information has been obtained by CariCRIS from sources which it considers reliable.  However, CariCRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.  No part of this report may be published/reproduced in any form without CariCRIS’ prior written approval.  CariCRIS is also not responsible for any errors in transmission and especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this product

Caribbean Information & Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS), the region’s credit rating agency, has today placed Eastern Credit Union Co-operative Society Limited (ECU) on Rating Watch – Developing.

This Rating Action was taken as a result of ECU’s lack of cooperation with providing us key information requested to facilitate the completion of our annual rating surveillance report for the 2021/22 period, despite our several attempts to obtain same. Furthermore, based on recent media releases, CariCRIS notes that there may be potential legal matters with ECU executives ongoing as well as investigations into its operations by the Commissioner of Co-operatives^[1]. We are concerned that these developments could adversely impact the credit union’s stability and financial performance going forward.

CariCRIS will continue to liaise with ECU’s personnel over the coming weeks to obtain the requested information and to determine the impact of recent events on ECU’s creditworthiness and adjust our ratings accordingly. ECU is currently rated CariBB+ (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale and ttBB+ on the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) national scale with a stable outlook assigned.

A CariCRIS rating is placed on Rating Watch – Developing when events occur that may affect the credit quality of the issuer/issue, the impact of which cannot be accurately assessed at that point in time. A rating placed under Rating Watch does not imply that the rating will necessarily change.

August 17, 2022

^[1] The Office of the Commissioner for Co-operatives is responsible for regulating and supervising co-operatives in Trinidad and Tobago, under the legislative requirement of the Co-operative Societies Act, Chapter 81:03 of the Laws of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago.

On May 10, 2022, Caribbean Information & Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS), the region’s credit rating agency, placed the Government of the Virgin Islands (GoVI) on Rating Watch – Developing. This Rating Action was based on uncertainty surrounding the continuation of the Assembly’s control of government following the publication of the findings and recommendations of the Commission of Inquiry (COI), and the subsequent arrest of the then Premier and collapse of Government. A new “Unity Government” has been formed and its plan of implementation of the COI’s recommendations (except for direct United Kingdom (UK) Government control) has been accepted by the UK Government. CariCRIS now believes that there is sufficient clarity and stability surrounding the matter to remove the Rating Watch and re-affirm the credit ratings of the GoVI at CariAA- (Foreign Currency and Local Currency), with a stable outlook^[1].

August 11, 2022

^[1] Refer to CariCRIS’ Credit Rating Rationale on the GoVI dated March 17, 2022

RATING ACTION:

On June 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned ratings of CariA- (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale, and ttA- on the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) national scale for The Beacon Insurance Company Limited. A stable outlook was assigned.

 RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

 Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

• An improvement in market share of general insurance products in its largest markets, T&T to 10% or more.
• An improvement in the overall credit profile for Beacon’s fixed income portfolio where more than 60% of the portfolio is rated investment grade on the S&P rating scale.
• Enhancement of Beacon’s risk management through the complete rollout of an Enterprise Risk Management system.
• Increased profitability leading to an improvement in ROA and ROE to above 2.5% and 10% respectively for the next financial year.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

• A 2-notch deterioration of the credit rating of Beacon’s top reinsurer.
• A deterioration of the company’s capital adequacy ratio of 150% or lower on a sustained basis for at least 6 months.

RATING RATIONALE

Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the currently assigned Issuer/Corporate Credit Ratings of  CariA- (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale and ttA- on the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) national scale to The Beacon Insurance Company Limited (‘Beacon’ or ‘the Company’). These ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of this obligor, adjudged in relation to other obligors in the Caribbean and within T&T is good. CariCRIS also recommends the reaffirmation of the Company’s financial strength rating of CariA- which indicates that the Company’s relative ability to meet its ongoing insurance obligations is good.

CariCRIS further recommends the maintenance of a stable outlook on the ratings. The outlook is based on our expectation that Beacon will maintain good profitability over the next 12-15 months driven by continued good revenue performance. In FY2021, the Company’s return on assets and return on equity improved slightly to 2.8% (2.7% previously) while return on equity decreased slightly to 10.8% (11.8% previously). Both ROA and ROE were above CariCRIS’ expectations of 2.5% and 10% respectively. Should the Company’s return metrics  meet or surpass CariCRIS’ expectations in the next financial year, we may increase the Company’s earnings parameter. Additionally, Beacon is expected to place focus on the enhancement of its systems and procedures as the Company takes steps toward the improvement and implementation of a comprehensive Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework. Should this implementation be successful, the Company may experience an improvement in its systems and procedures risk rating paramet

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-4356

khamlet@caricris.com   

Sultan Mohammed

Mobile : 1-1868-362-7304

smohammed@caricris.com 

Disclaimer: CariCRIS has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for this product. Information has been obtained by CariCRIS from sources which it considers reliable.  However, CariCRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.  No part of this report may be published / reproduced in any form without CariCRIS’ prior written approval.  CariCRIS is also not responsible for any errors in transmission and especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this product.