Government of Anguilla

RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the Issuer/Sovereign Credit ratings of CariBBB+ (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale assigned to the The Government of Anguilla (GOA). A stable outlook was maintained.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could lead to an improvement in the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

Real GDP growth in excess of 5% over pre-hurricane level of GDP for at least 2 years
A fiscal surplus of more than 5% of GDP recorded for at least 2 consecutive fiscal periods, with no breaches of debt metrics
Meaningful diversification of the economy

Factors that could lead to a lowering of the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

An increase in debt to GDP ratio to above 70%
A significant decline in grant support without other compensating revenues
A change in the country’s status as a British Overseas Territory or a material change in the level of support rendered to Anguilla
The banking sector’s capitalization ratio falling below 8%

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Stefan Fortuné

Phone: 1-868-799-6751 (m)

sfortune@caricris.com

Brandon Singh

Phone: 1-868-627-8879

bsingh@caricris.com

www.caricris.com

info@caricris.com

Government of Anguilla

CariCRIS reaffirms “adequate creditworthiness” ratings for The Government of Anguilla

RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the Issuer/Corporate Credit ratings CariA- (Foreign Currency Rating) and CariA (Local Currency Rating) on its regional rating scale and jmAA (Foreign Currency Rating) and jmAA+ (Local Currency Rating) on its Jamaica national scale assigned to National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited (NCBJ or the Bank). A stable outlook was maintained.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and/or outlook include:

Improvement in the Government of Jamaica’s credit rating, leading to an improved credit risk profile of NCBJ
Retail deposits ≥ 40% of funding base
ROE > 20% sustained for 2 consecutive financial years
Cost to income ≤ 50% for 2 consecutive financial years

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings and/or outlook include:

The occurrence of any factors that may contribute to the deterioration of the CAR below the 12.5% minimum requirement for the Bank
The deterioration of the gross NPLs to gross loans ratio to 7.5% or more, leading to reduced earnings and increased provisioning, thereby affecting profitability
Loans to Deposits ratio ≥ 80% for 2 consecutive financial years
ROE < 8% sustained for 2 consecutive financial years
Cost to income ≥ 70% for 2 consecutive financial years

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile: 1-868-487-8356

khamlet@caricris.com

Megan Dass

mdass@caricris.com

www.caricris.com

info@caricris.com

National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited

CariCRIS reaffirms “good” creditworthiness ratings for National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited

Guardian Holdings Limited

CariCRIS reaffirms ‘good creditworthiness’ ratings for Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL)

RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned ratings of CariAA- (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale and jmAAA (Local Currency Rating) on the Jamaican national scale for Guardian Holdings Limited. A stable outlook was assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

Expansion of the Group’s product and service offerings and/or improvements in operating efficiencies leading to a sustained increase in PAT of 20% or more for more than 2 years.
An improvement in the credit rating of the Government of The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

A fall in GHL’s dividend receipts from the Group’s subsidiaries leading to a fall in the cash flow adequacy ratio below 1 time sustained for 3 financial periods.
A lowering of the ratings of any of the Group’s top 5 reinsurers.
A lowering of the credit rating of the Government of The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago.
Breach of covenants stipulated in the final term sheet/ prospectus for the bond offering.
Re-emergence of regulatory constraints on dividends payable by GHL’s major operating subsidiaries.

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-4356

khamlet@caricris.com

Sultan Mohammed

Mobile : 1-1868-362-7304

smohammed@caricris.com

www.caricris.com

info@caricris.com

NCB Financial Group Limited

RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned regional ratings of CariA+ (Local Currency Ratings) and CariA (Foreign Currency) and jmAAA (Local Currency) and jmAA+ (Foreign Currency) on the Jamaica national scale for NCB Financial Group Limited. A stable outlook was assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

Improvement in the credit ratings of the Government of Jamaica (GoJ) and/or the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GoRTT) leading to an improved sovereign risk profile.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

Deterioration of any of the subsidiaries’ CAR below the country-specific regulatory requirements
Deterioration in the credit ratings of the Government of Jamaica (GoJ) and/or the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GoRTT) leading to a worsened sovereign risk profile
Deterioration in cost to income ratio of 90% or above

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-4356

khamlet@caricris.com

Sharlene Gordon

Mobile : 1-1876-618-9811

sgordon@caricris.com

www.caricris.com

info@caricris.com

NCB Financial Group Limited

CariCRIS reaffirms “high” creditworthiness ratings of NCB Financial Group Limited

RATING ACTION:

On August 4, 2022, CariCRIS assigned initial issuer/corporate credit ratings of CariAA (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on the regional rating scale, and ttAA on the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) national scale for ANSA Merchant Bank Limited (AMBL Group). A stable outlook was assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

Improvement in the credit rating of the Government of Trinidad and Tobago
Successful acquisitions over the next 12 to 15 months with a concomitant material improvement in any of its main segments’ market share and AMBL Group’s overall financial performance
Material improvement in the financial performance and position of the ANSA McAL Group

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

Substantial and sustained deterioration in PAT of more than 50%, with a greater than 10% fall in premium income and 55% decrease in NII, over 2 successive years
A more than 40% increase in total operating expenses leading to a combined ratio in excess of 180%
Downgrade in the rating of the Government of Trinidad and Tobago
Material deterioration in the financial performance and position of the ANSA McAL Group

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Anelia Oudit

Mobile : 1-868-487-8364

aoudit@caricris.com

Nadia Sanchez

nsanchez@caricris.com

www.caricris.com

info@caricris.com