RATING ACTION:

On September 1, 2022, CariCRIS downgraded the credit rating assigned to the J $1 billion bond debt issue of Poly Pet Company Limited (Poly Pet or the Company) to jmBB+ (Local Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale. A negative outlook was assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement of the ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• An increase in PAT of above 10% for 2 consecutive years
• Improvement of the sovereign risk profile of Jamaica
• Improvement in the Company’s DSCR to over 1 time sustained for more than 2 financial years (based on data from audited accounts)
• Improvement in Poly Pet’s debt to net shareholder’s equity ratio to below 2 times sustained for 2 financial periods (based on data for audited accounts)
• Sustained compliance with bond financial covenants for more than 2 financial periods (based on audited accounts)

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• A greater than 10% decline in operating revenue
• A net increase in intercompany balances by 5% over the next 12 months
• Continued breach of covenants stipulated in the final term sheet/prospectus for the bond offering
• Inability to raise capital given the likelihood that the bond’s principal at maturity would need to be refinanced in 2025
• Changes in environmental laws and regulations towards reducing plastic use in Jamaica
• Deterioration in the sovereign risk profile of Jamaica
• Material deviation of Poly Pet’s audited financial accounts for June 2021 from management accounts presented, resulting in lower profitability and cash flow adequacy metrics

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-8356

khamelt@caricris.com

Maxwell Gooding

mgooding@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com  

CariCRIS downgrades its credit ratings for Poly Pet Company Limited

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RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned Issuer/Corporate Credit ratings at CariA (Foreign & Local Currency Ratings) on the regional scale and ttA (Foreign & Local Currency Ratings) on the Trinidad and Tobago national scale to Colonial Fire & General Insurance Company Limited (Colfire or the Company). A stable outlook was maintained.

 RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and /or outlook include:

• An improvement in the credit rating of the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
• Sustained growth in PAT by >15% for another year without impacting other financial health indicators like capital adequacy and asset quality

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings/or outlook include:

• A further lowering of the credit rating of the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
• A 2-notch deterioration of the credit rating of any of Colfire’s top 3 reinsurers by Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services
• A deterioration in the Company’s regulatory capital adequacy ratio below 150% over the next 12 months
• Loss of relationship with any of the Company’s major reinsurers due to issues relating to the accessing foreign exchange
• A 15% fall in Motor Premium Income

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Anelia Oudit

Mobile : 1-868-487-8364

aoudit@caricris.com

Jeffrey James

jjames@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com

CariCRIS reaffirms “good creditworthiness” credit ratings to Colonial Fire & General Insurance Company Limited

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RATING ACTION:

On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the Issuer/Sovereign Credit ratings of CariBBB- (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale assigned to the The Government of Saint Lucia (GOSL). A stable outlook was maintained.

 RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS

 Factors that could lead to an improvement in the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Substantial changes in the debt levels leading to a debt to GDP ratio below 65%
• Achievement of a balanced budget over the medium term
• Sustained GDP growth of the order of 3% per annum or more (above pre-COVID-19 level)

Factors that could lead to a lowering of the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Significant changes in the fiscal position leading to a fiscal deficit larger than 15% of GDP
• Substantial changes in the debt levels leading to sustained debt to GDP in excess of 90% alongside a decline in debt servicing to below 2 times

RATING RATIONALE

Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the ratings of CariBBB- (Foreign Currency and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale for the several rated debt issues of the Government of Saint Lucia (GOSL). These ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of these debt obligations, adjudged in relation to other debt obligations in the Caribbean, is adequate.

CariCRIS has also maintained a stable outlook. The stable outlook is based on the stabilization in fiscal performance and in debt to GDP following the initial COVID-19 shock in 2020. Supporting the debt to GDP containment within the current rating category’s limits is the expected GDP growth of around 12% in 2022, a continued inflexion away from 2019’s and 2020’s contractions. Returning tourism activities are expected to support balance of payments health. However, downside risks to the outlook are significant and include inflation and economic slowdown in source markets, slowing the path to full recovery. Further virus impacts and potential hurricane strikes remain key risks as well.

Analyst’s Contact Info:

Stefan Fortuné

Phone: 1-868-799-6751 (m)

sfortune@caricris.com    

www.caricris.com   

info@caricris.com

Disclaimer: CariCRIS has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for this product. Information has been obtained by CariCRIS from sources which it considers reliable.  However, CariCRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.  No part of this report may be published / reproduced in any form without CariCRIS’ prior written approval.  CariCRIS is also not responsible for any errors in transmission and especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this product.

CariCRIS reaffirms “adequate creditworthiness” ratings for The Government of Saint Lucia

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CariCRIS upgrades its Corporate Credit Ratings for Sygnus Credit Investments Limited

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CariCRIS reaffirms overall ‘adequate creditworthiness’ ratings for Victoria Mutual Investments Limited

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RATING ACTION:

On August 29, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned Issuer/ Corporate Ratings of CariBBB- (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale and jmBBB+ (Local Currency Rating) and jmBBB (Foreign Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale to Victoria Mutual Investments Limited (VMIL or the Company). A stable outlook was maintained.

RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement of the ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Expansion of the Group’s product and service offerings and/or improvements in net interest spreads leading to a sustained increase in PAT of 10% or more for 1 year
• An improvement in the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica
• Less than 25% of VMIL’s (the Company) revenue is derived from dividend income as overall revenue from investments and loans increases sustained for 2 financial periods

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Deterioration in VMWM’s total capital to total assets ratio to 7.5% or lower
• A deterioration of VMWM’s capital base to risk-weighted assets ratio to 12.5% or lower
• A lowering of the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica

Analysts’ Contact Info:

Keith Hamlet

Mobile : 1-868-487-8356

khamelt@caricris.com

Maxwell Gooding

mgooding@caricris.com

www.caricris.com 

info@caricris.com